Tuesday, December 11, 2007

No Stranger to Dark Horses

My "late to the party" support of Mike Huckabee for President in 2008 isn't the first time I've latched onto a so-called Dark Horse Candidate. In 1996, I made my first ever political contribution to Alan Keyes. I even drove from Waco to Denton to hear him speak in person. Maybe it was that Quixotic support that cause me to hold back so long on Huckabee. I didn't want to pick a candidate with absolutely no shot at getting the nomination. Now, as I examine the polls, I think there's good reason to think that this race has become Huckabee's to lose.

First, the attacks aren't sticking.  Reagan was called the Teflon President.  Huckabee may very well be 2008's Teflon Candidate.

Second, Fred Thompson has to drop out sooner or later.  I'd prefer it be before South Carolina, but even if he waits until after South Carolina, as long as he exits before February 5th, this can only help Huckabee.  There's no way to know for sure, but once Thompson drops out, the most logical place for his supporters to go is to Huckabee.  Except, if McCain is still in the race, Thompson might endorse McCain.

Third, except for Thompson, there's really no other viable choice for Christian Republicans.  I'm not knocking my friends who have chosen for various reasons to support Giuliani, but I just don't buy the "Rudy is the only one who can beat Hillary" argument.  Duncan Hunter may be a fine man and would likely be a good President, but barring some sort of miracle, he's dead.  Maybe he'll realize it after Iowa and New Hampshire.


oso diablo said...

1. Our dad asked me, in October... "why do you always support these guys who have no chance?"

2. Thompson won't drop out before South Carolina. He's too lazy to drop out.

3. Why couldn't a "Christian Republican" (btw, shouldn't that be a "Republican Christian"?) support John McCain?

oso diablo said...

re: #1, i should add that my previous darkhouse guy that prompted dad's comment, as far as i know anyway, was John Kasich in 2000.