Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Electability

My brother commented earlier:

on electability, see my blog posts where i analyze voter trends back into the 80s, and conclude that Huckabee would get 50.4% of the vote, in a pure head-to-head race against an undetermined Democrat.

http://huck-the-system.blogspot.com/2007/11/pew-political-typologies.html

http://huck-the-system.blogspot.com/2007/12/typologies-potus-vote-patterns.html


Let me be clear, I'm not conceding the prevailing opinion that Huckabee is less electable than, say Giuliani. In fact, Rasmussen's latest Head-to-heads show Huckabee doing better against Clinton than anyone other than McCain.

Of course, National polls are meaningless. Not just now, but always in Presidential Politics. Thanks to the Electoral College system, the Presidential election is really a series of 50 State races rather than a national race. It's nice to garner the Majority (or even a plurality as Bill Clinton demonstrated), but it's not necessary, as George W. Bush proved in 2000.

However, perhaps even more telling for Huckabee, his Favorable rating is higher than all the Republican candidates other than McCain, and his negatives are the lowest of the main Republican contenders. Duncan Hunter is lower in unfavorables, but I'm certain that's because nobody knows who he is. Given his low recognition, his Unfavorable rating is actually pretty high.

If Huckabee can win the Republican Nomination, his chance of winning in November 2008 is as good as any other Republican's, and better than some.

1 comment:

MOOSE! said...

Plus, you gotta love the possibility of having a president named Huckabee. Say it with me. Huck-a-bee.