2008 Presidential Election Prediction

After I did so well four years ago, I hesitate to put my prognostication skills to the test again, but here goes:

I foresee a win for Senator Obama, but not by nearly the margin that many predict. I have Obama winning 22 states plus the District of Columbia. That means Senator McCain will win more states (28) but they won't be the right ones to get him to 270 Electoral Votes. I have Obama at 273 EVs and McCain at 265. I believe the most EVs Obama will get is 291

If McCain does not win Virginia, I believe it's all over. I have never believed the possibility of flipping Pennsylvania, so McCain must win VA/FL/NC/OH/IN. Then, he has to pull out Colorado because I think New Mexico is a lost cause.

Here are the states I am calling for Obama with their Electoral Votes in parentheses:

California (55)
Colorado (9)
Connecticut (7)
Delaware (3)
District of Columbia (3)
Hawaii (4)
Iowa (7)
Illinois (21)
Maine (4)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (12)
Michigan (17)
Minnesota (10)
New Hampshire (4)
New Jersey (15)
New Mexico (5)
New York (31)
Oregon (7)
Pennsylvania (21)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)
Washington (11)
Wisconsin (10)